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European Champions Cup forecast accuracy

Prediction accuracy

Round 1 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:45
Friday 12.10.2018
Leinster52 - 3WaspsRomain Poite499
13:00
Saturday 13.10.2018
Bath20 - 22ToulouseAndy Brace-2-5
15:15
Saturday 13.10.2018
Exeter10 - 10MunsterJerome Garces06
16:15
Saturday 13.10.2018
Montpellier21 - 15EdinburghWayne Barnes623
17:30
Saturday 13.10.2018
Scarlets13 - 14Racing 92Matt Carley-14
17:30
Saturday 13.10.2018
Ulster24 - 10LeicesterPascal Gauzere1421
13:00
Sunday 14.10.2018
Gloucester19 - 14CastresMarius Mitrea57
14:00
Sunday 14.10.2018
Lyon21 - 30CardiffJP Doyle-9-1
15:15
Sunday 14.10.2018
Glasgow3 - 13SaracensMathieu Raynal-101
16:15
Sunday 14.10.2018
Toulon25 - 26NewcastleBen Whitehouse-114
Round 2 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:45
Friday 19.10.2018
Leicester45 - 27ScarletsRomain Poite1822
14:00
Saturday 20.10.2018
Munster36 - 22GloucesterAlexandre Ruiz146
14:00
Saturday 20.10.2018
Castres29 - 25ExeterJohn Lacey44
15:15
Saturday 20.10.2018
Racing 9244 - 12UlsterNigel Owens32-9
15:15
Saturday 20.10.2018
Edinburgh40 - 14ToulonJP Doyle26-4
15:15
Saturday 20.10.2018
Wasps35 - 35BathJerome Garces0-1
17:30
Saturday 20.10.2018
Saracens29 - 10LyonGeorge Clancy19-3
13:00
Sunday 21.10.2018
Newcastle23 - 20MontpellierMike Adamson3-1
15:15
Sunday 21.10.2018
Cardiff12 - 29GlasgowLuke Pearce-178
16:15
Sunday 21.10.2018
Toulouse28 - 27LeinsterWayne Barnes1-2
Round 3 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:45
Friday 07.12.2018
Edinburgh31 - 13NewcastleMarius Mitrea186
19:45
Friday 07.12.2018
Scarlets24 - 25UlsterAlexandre Ruiz-1-8
13:00
Saturday 08.12.2018
Exeter19 - 27GloucesterPascal Gauzere-86
14:00
Saturday 08.12.2018
Lyon22 - 42GlasgowMatt Carley-201
15:15
Saturday 08.12.2018
Bath10 - 17LeinsterMathieu Raynal-7-6
16:15
Saturday 08.12.2018
Toulon38 - 28MontpellierLuke Pearce1013
17:30
Saturday 08.12.2018
Wasps16 - 24ToulouseJohn Lacey-8-1
13:00
Sunday 09.12.2018
Saracens51 - 25CardiffRomain Poite266
13:00
Sunday 09.12.2018
Munster30 - 5CastresJP Doyle2513
16:15
Sunday 09.12.2018
Racing 9236 - 26LeicesterAndy Brace10-6
Round 4 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:45
Friday 14.12.2018
Gloucester17 - 29ExeterMathieu Raynal-127
19:45
Friday 14.12.2018
Ulster30 - 15ScarletsLuke Pearce1530
13:00
Saturday 15.12.2018
Cardiff14 - 26SaracensJerome Garces-12-1
13:00
Saturday 15.12.2018
Glasgow21 - 10LyonBen Whitehouse112
16:15
Saturday 15.12.2018
Toulouse42 - 27WaspsNigel Owens15-4
17:30
Saturday 15.12.2018
Leinster42 - 15BathPascal Gauzere272
18:30
Saturday 15.12.2018
Castres13 - 12MunsterWayne Barnes18
13:00
Sunday 16.12.2018
Leicester11 - 34Racing 92George Clancy-2319
15:15
Sunday 16.12.2018
Newcastle8 - 21EdinburghAlexandre Ruiz-133
16:15
Sunday 16.12.2018
Montpellier34 - 13ToulonJohn Lacey217
Round 5 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:45
Friday 11.01.2019
Gloucester15 - 41MunsterRomain Poite-264
13:00
Saturday 12.01.2019
Leinster29 - 13ToulouseLuke Pearce165
14:00
Saturday 12.01.2019
Montpellier45 - 8NewcastleMarius Mitrea3710
15:15
Saturday 12.01.2019
Bath18 - 16WaspsBen Whitehouse2-4
15:15
Saturday 12.01.2019
Ulster26 - 22Racing 92Matt Carley428
17:30
Saturday 12.01.2019
Scarlets33 - 10LeicesterMathieu Raynal231
18:30
Saturday 12.01.2019
Toulon17 - 28EdinburghWayne Barnes-1126
13:00
Sunday 13.01.2019
Exeter34 - 12CastresGeorge Clancy2212
15:15
Sunday 13.01.2019
Glasgow33 - 24CardiffJP Doyle9-1
16:15
Sunday 13.01.2019
Lyon10 - 28SaracensAndy Brace-18-11
Round 6 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:45
Friday 18.01.2019
Edinburgh19 - 10MontpellierJP Doyle910
19:45
Friday 18.01.2019
Newcastle24 - 27ToulonDan Jones-34
13:00
Saturday 19.01.2019
Cardiff33 - 14LyonKarl Dickson196
13:00
Saturday 19.01.2019
Saracens38 - 19GlasgowPascal Gauzere198
15:15
Saturday 19.01.2019
Leicester13 - 14UlsterAlexandre Ruiz-118
16:15
Saturday 19.01.2019
Racing 9246 - 33ScarletsAndy Brace135
17:30
Saturday 19.01.2019
Munster9 - 7ExeterJerome Garces218
18:30
Saturday 19.01.2019
Castres24 - 22GloucesterNigel Owens25
15:15
Sunday 20.01.2019
Wasps19 - 37LeinsterMike Adamson-18-2
16:15
Sunday 20.01.2019
Toulouse20 - 17BathGeorge Clancy3-2

Game count: 60

Outcome accurately predicted: 35

Outcome incorrectly predicted: 25

Average error: 13.8 points

Success rate: 58.33%

Number of occasions points difference accurately predicted: 1

The average error is calculated using the absolute errors (i.e., if an error is negative, it is converted to a positive value). This way the average error will also be a positive value. Many thanks to @rugbyvision.

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