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Pro14 forecast accuracy

Prediction accuracy

Round 1 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:35
Friday 31.08.2018
Cardiff32 - 33LeinsterNigel Owens-13
19:35
Friday 31.08.2018
Ospreys17 - 13EdinburghJohn Lacey4-2
15:00
Saturday 01.09.2018
Connacht26 - 27GlasgowIan Davies-12
17:15
Saturday 01.09.2018
Ulster15 - 13ScarletsMarius Mitrea213
17:15
Saturday 01.09.2018
Munster38 - 0CheetahsDan Jones383
19:35
Saturday 01.09.2018
Dragons17 - 21BenettonGeorge Clancy-44
20:35
Saturday 01.09.2018
Zebre32 - 16KingsMike Adamson168
Round 2 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:35
Friday 07.09.2018
Glasgow25 - 10MunsterBen Whitehouse150
19:35
Friday 07.09.2018
Ulster30 - 29EdinburghStuart Berry116
15:00
Saturday 08.09.2018
Dragons27 - 22KingsFrank Murphy516
17:15
Saturday 08.09.2018
Connacht32 - 13ZebreLloyd Linton1910
17:30
Saturday 08.09.2018
Ospreys46 - 14CheetahsAndy Brace323
19:35
Saturday 08.09.2018
Scarlets23 - 21LeinsterMike Adamson213
20:35
Saturday 08.09.2018
Benetton27 - 25CardiffSean Gallagher2-6
Round 3 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:35
Friday 14.09.2018
Edinburgh17 - 10ConnachtIan Davies71
19:35
Friday 14.09.2018
Munster49 - 13OspreysStuart Berry362
17:15
Saturday 15.09.2018
Scarlets38 - 29BenettonLloyd Linton916
17:15
Saturday 15.09.2018
Leinster52 - 10DragonsQuinton Immelman423
19:30
Saturday 15.09.2018
Cheetahs24 - 52GlasgowFrank Murphy-281
20:35
Saturday 15.09.2018
Zebre26 - 24CardiffGeorge Clancy2-9
14:15
Sunday 16.09.2018
Kings7 - 28UlsterSam Grove-White-21-6
Round 4 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:15
Friday 21.09.2018
Cheetahs39 - 39UlsterBen Whitehouse04
19:35
Friday 21.09.2018
Cardiff37 - 13MunsterQuinton Immelman24-2
15:00
Saturday 22.09.2018
Kings38 - 28GlasgowAndy Brace10-8
17:15
Saturday 22.09.2018
Connacht33 - 20ScarletsMarius Mitrea139
17:15
Saturday 22.09.2018
Dragons16 - 5ZebreJoy Neville1110
19:35
Saturday 22.09.2018
Leinster31 - 7EdinburghDan Jones243
19:35
Saturday 22.09.2018
Ospreys27 - 10BenettonMike Adamson174
Round 5 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:35
Friday 28.09.2018
Cardiff24 - 21CheetahsGeorge Clancy37
19:35
Friday 28.09.2018
Edinburgh31 - 30BenettonNigel Owens17
16:00
Saturday 29.09.2018
Zebre8 - 22OspreysFrank Murphy-14-6
17:15
Saturday 29.09.2018
Connacht3 - 20LeinsterJohn Lacey-178
18:30
Saturday 29.09.2018
Scarlets54 - 14KingsSean Gallagher4033
19:35
Saturday 29.09.2018
Glasgow29 - 13DragonsStuart Berry166
19:35
Saturday 29.09.2018
Munster64 - 7UlsterDan Jones576
Round 6 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:35
Friday 05.10.2018
Edinburgh37 - 21CheetahsMarius Mitrea162
19:35
Friday 05.10.2018
Glasgow36 - 8ZebreQuinton Immelman2810
19:35
Friday 05.10.2018
Ulster15 - 22ConnachtAndy Brace-716
15:00
Saturday 06.10.2018
Scarlets20 - 17OspreysNigel Owens315
17:15
Saturday 06.10.2018
Dragons15 - 23CardiffIan Davies-86
18:00
Saturday 06.10.2018
Leinster30 - 22MunsterBen Whitehouse83
20:00
Saturday 06.10.2018
Benetton28 - 5KingsCraig Evans239
Round 7 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:00
Friday 26.10.2018
Kings34 - 41ScarletsJohn Lacey-7-5
19:05
Friday 26.10.2018
Ospreys22 - 17ConnachtMike Adamson53
19:55
Friday 26.10.2018
Ulster36 - 18DragonsMarius Mitrea1817
20:00
Friday 26.10.2018
Zebre34 - 16EdinburghAndy Brace18-2
16:00
Saturday 27.10.2018
Benetton3 - 31LeinsterBen Whitehouse-28-4
17:15
Saturday 27.10.2018
Munster25 - 24GlasgowDan Jones13
19:15
Saturday 27.10.2018
Cheetahs21 - 10CardiffLloyd Linton116
Round 8 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:35
Friday 02.11.2018
Edinburgh31 - 21ScarletsBen O'Keefe102
19:35
Friday 02.11.2018
Ospreys20 - 29GlasgowAndy Brace-9-3
16:00
Saturday 03.11.2018
Benetton10 - 15UlsterMike Adamson-5-1
17:15
Saturday 03.11.2018
Connacht33 - 12DragonsQuinton Immelman2113
14:45
Sunday 04.11.2018
Cardiff37 - 0ZebreGeorge Clancy3713
14:45
Sunday 04.11.2018
Kings31 - 38LeinsterLloyd Linton-7-7
16:45
Sunday 04.11.2018
Cheetahs26 - 30MunsterMarius Mitrea-42
Round 9 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:35
Friday 23.11.2018
Glasgow40 - 15CardiffJohn Lacey254
19:35
Friday 23.11.2018
Leinster52 - 7OspreysMarius Mitrea451
14:30
Saturday 24.11.2018
Scarlets29 - 12UlsterQuinton Immelman1717
14:30
Saturday 24.11.2018
Cheetahs31 - 25BenettonCraig Evans63
15:00
Sunday 25.11.2018
Kings14 - 31ConnachtGeorge Clancy-17-2
16:30
Sunday 25.11.2018
Zebre7 - 32MunsterSam Grove-White-25-4
17:30
Sunday 25.11.2018
Dragons18 - 12EdinburghStuart Berry67
Round 10 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:35
Friday 30.11.2018
Ospreys43 - 0ZebreCwengile Jadezweni4315
19:35
Friday 30.11.2018
Munster44 - 14EdinburghNigel Owens307
15:00
Saturday 01.12.2018
Ulster16 - 12CardiffStuart Berry413
15:15
Saturday 01.12.2018
Kings19 - 22BenettonSean Gallagher-31
17:00
Saturday 01.12.2018
Cheetahs17 - 21ConnachtDan Jones-47
17:15
Saturday 01.12.2018
Glasgow29 - 20ScarletsFrank Murphy91
17:15
Saturday 01.12.2018
Dragons10 - 59LeinsterLloyd Linton-494
Round 11 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:35
Friday 21.12.2018
Ulster19 - 12MunsterSean Gallagher713
19:35
Friday 21.12.2018
Cardiff19 - 16DragonsFrank Murphy39
15:00
Saturday 22.12.2018
Ospreys19 - 12ScarletsBen Whitehouse7-1
17:15
Saturday 22.12.2018
Edinburgh23 - 7GlasgowMike Adamson161
19:45
Saturday 22.12.2018
Leinster33 - 29ConnachtGeorge Clancy48
14:00
Sunday 23.12.2018
Zebre8 - 10BenettonMarius Mitrea-2-1
Round 12 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:35
Friday 28.12.2018
Connacht21 - 12UlsterMarius Mitrea99
15:00
Saturday 29.12.2018
Glasgow8 - 16EdinburghGeorge Clancy-87
15:00
Saturday 29.12.2018
Benetton28 - 10ZebreLloyd Linton187
17:15
Saturday 29.12.2018
Munster26 - 17LeinsterFrank Murphy9-1
17:15
Saturday 29.12.2018
Scarlets5 - 34CardiffNigel Owens-2916
15:00
Sunday 30.12.2018
Dragons23 - 22OspreysDan Jones13
Round 13 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
15:00
Saturday 05.01.2019
Benetton20 - 17GlasgowJoy Neville3-7
15:00
Saturday 05.01.2019
Ospreys20 - 11CardiffBen Whitehouse9-1
17:15
Saturday 05.01.2019
Leinster40 - 7UlsterAndy Brace334
17:15
Saturday 05.01.2019
Scarlets22 - 13DragonsCraig Evans916
19:35
Saturday 05.01.2019
Edinburgh38 - 0KingsJohn Lacey3817
19:35
Saturday 05.01.2019
Connacht24 - 31MunsterMike Adamson-76
14:00
Sunday 06.01.2019
Zebre12 - 27CheetahsDan Jones-150
Round 11 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:00
Saturday 19.01.2019
Kings17 - 24CheetahsDan Jones-7-8
Round 14 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:35
Friday 25.01.2019
Glasgow9 - 3OspreysJohn Lacey61
19:35
Friday 25.01.2019
Leinster22 - 17ScarletsMarius Mitrea55
19:35
Friday 25.01.2019
Ulster17 - 17BenettonNigel Owens018
15:00
Saturday 26.01.2019
Dragons7 - 8MunsterBen Blain-12
15:00
Saturday 26.01.2019
Cheetahs61 - 28ZebreBen Whitehouse3310
17:15
Saturday 26.01.2019
Cardiff8 - 7ConnachtMike Adamson111
17:15
Saturday 26.01.2019
Kings25 - 21EdinburghDan Jones4-3
Round 12 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
16:00
Saturday 02.02.2019
Cheetahs40 - 36KingsStuart Berry419
Round 15 ResultsActual Margin Predicted Margin
19:35
Friday 15.02.2019
Edinburgh34 - 17DragonsAndy Brace178
19:35
Friday 15.02.2019
Munster43 - 0KingsAndrew Piardi4317
Saturday 16.02.2019Ospreys0 - 8UlsterQuinton Immelman-81
16:00
Saturday 16.02.2019
Zebre24 - 40LeinsterIan Davies-16-7
17:30
Saturday 16.02.2019
Connacht25 - 17CheetahsNigel Owens88
18:15
Saturday 16.02.2019
Benetton25 - 19ScarletsFrank Murphy61
19:35
Saturday 16.02.2019
Cardiff34 - 38GlasgowGeorge Clancy-44

Game count: 105

Outcome accurately predicted: 73

Outcome incorrectly predicted: 32

Average error: 12.8 points

Success rate: 69.52%

Number of occasions points difference accurately predicted: 5

The average error is calculated using the absolute errors (i.e., if an error is negative, it is converted to a positive value). This way the average error will also be a positive value. Many thanks to @rugbyvision.

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