produced by crfcfans
@crfcfans
last updated 9 days 237 hours 29 minutes 13 seconds ago

Predictions

Predicting results is a favourite past time for sport fans. Everyone thinks they know best when it comes to forecasting victories or defeats. Sometimes the heart rules the head and othertimes it's the opposite.

In a not-too-serious effort to join the debate, we are Cardiff RFC Fans have developed an algorithm designed to forecast results. It utilises the current data in our data base:-

  • 13685 match results
  • 392 referee profiles

Leaning heavily on the work done by Rugby Numbers and Rugby Vision this algorithm is comprised of three seperate elements - the defensive and attacking records of the home and away teams over the past 'x' games (weighted by the relative strenght or weakness of the opposition) and the relative propensity of the referee to favour home teams with his decisions.

We're now in our second season of forecasting. During the 2017-18 season we recorded a 70.23% accuracy. Forecasting a home victory in every game would have yielded a 63.33% accuracy.

Click here to see our accuracy rate so far in the Pro14, and here to see the accuracy for this season's European Cup.

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