Monthly Archives: April 2015

Judgement Day III – some context

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Welsh rugby’s late season double header saw the highest attendance of the three times this jamboree has been held. See what happens when people work together? Now with Roger finally consigned to Rhoose, there are already signs of a resuscitation of the pro-game under the guidance of Gareth Davies.

The 52,762 who turned up in Cardiff to watch the two games represented a big jump on the previous two double headers, up from 30,411 in 2014, and 36,174 in 2013.

So this is all good news, right? Well more bums on seats means more revenue for the pro-game, so let’s not get too negative about this progress. But what about the hype in the media about the attendance figures?

Biggest attendance for a Pro12/Celtic League Fixture in History

That’s really stretching it as this was in fact two games. So you could argue that the attendance per game was 26,381. That’s some way short of Leinster’s 22-18 victory over Munster in March last year, when 51,700 turned up to watch that game in Dublin. In fact, JDIII doesn’t even make the top 10 for the highest Pro12/Celtic League attendances of all time.

Biggest attendance for a pro-game featuring a Welsh club/regional team this century in Wales

That record is still held by Cardiff, and their agonising defeat to Leicester in the HEC in 2009. But JDIII does make it into the Top 10, coming in at number six.

Biggest attendance for a Pro12/Celtic League Fixture in Wales

This is a record that also wasn’t beaten. In the second Celtic League Final, Neath faced Munster at the Millennium Stadium, and 30,076 souls saw Neath go down 37-17 against the Irishmen on that day in 2003.

Biggest attendance for a professional game of rugby in Europe on 25th April 2014

There’s a record that will undoubtedly stand. Leicester’s defeat of London Welsh came in second with 23,016 and Toulouse’s outstanding win in Paris was witnessed by 20,000 (still awaiting LNR’s official figure on that one).

Biggest attendance for a professional game of rugby in the world on 25th April 2014

Sadly, we’re still some way short of that. 45,872 watched the Stormers beat the Bulls in Cape Town.

Until the first double-header in 2013, and since the demise of cup finals that regularly filled the then National Stadium, we’ve been robbed of big domestic games in Wales. The English and French have maintained that tradition and double headers in London have become a regular success. Saracens’ games against Harlequins are now regularly drawing 80,000 plus at Wembley.

As ever with Welsh rugby, the press is always more interested in making a story than reporting on the facts, and are particularly myopic when it comes to historical trends or taking a non-parochial view of events.

Rugby attendances in Wales have dipped since their 2009-10 peak (more on that in later blogs), but perhaps the biggest conclusion we can draw from Judgement Day III is this. Despite all four teams being mostly shorn of their international stars (thank you Warren), and despite the fact that the untouchable Clancy was refereeing one of the games, and despite the pretty poor performances (Ospreys’ aside) that have plagued Welsh club/regional rugby this season, 52,762 people turned up to watch these two games. Now that can’t be a bad thing, can it?


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Last month, I had a life changing experience. To be precise, it was my wife’s life changing experience, but my life will now never be the same. A distant uncle with no relatives left the sum of £100m to her in his will. Now that’s a life changer. Like the wonderful woman that she is, she said, “Let’s split it 50-50, but you must invest at least 50% of your share.” So £25m goes into the bank and I’m earning more money in interest than I can spend. Life is good. And better still, I’ve got that £25m to play with.

So what to do with my £25m? Suddenly, I realised what this meant. This is my chance, I thought. I can invest the money in my dream – to help build Cardiff back up to become one of the top teams in Europe.

So, three weeks ago, I approach the board at Cardiff Arms Park with my proposal and business plan – a massive cash investment to develop the stadium and surrounds, a complete overhaul of the support staff and training facilities, and serious investment in the playing squad.

“Thank you very much for your gift,” they said.

“Hang on a minute!” I replied. “I’ve got more than just money to offer. I would like to retain some influence to ensure my cash is used in the way I’d like. Let’s convert my cash into shares.”

“Not possible”, came the reply. “We can’t issue shares from Cardiff RFC Ltd – the company that owns the Cardiff Blues – because part of the shares are held by Cardiff Athletic Club (CAC).”

“I don’t follow”, I replied.

“Well, under the company structure of CRFC Ltd, a certain percentage of shares must be held by CAC – and they don’t want to buy any more shares, so we can’t convert your gift into shares without them also buying shares.”

Dumbstruck by the control still held by an amateur organisation, I was shocked. “So what you’re telling me is, even though I’m offering you a £25m investment, you cannot offer me a stake in the business?”

“I’m afraid so”, came the reply.

I was angry. I was frustrated. All those dreams I thought I could realise were suddenly shattered. I lashed out and said something stupid, “In that case, I’ll take my money to Newport and invest it there instead!”

“You can’t do that either. They’re 50% owned by the WRU.”

Ah well. I wonder if there’s a club across the border who would be interested?

B&Bs v B&ABs

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This is the proper club derby, the one with the serious history dating back decades to when the two played each other four times a year or more. This is the old rivalry, this is the one that matters and this is the one that counts. Or at least it used to before plasticity in Newport and lunacy at Cardiff emasculated the fixture.

Still, never mind, let’s make the most of it as any victory over the Newport team, whatever fancy dress or stupid #eeeknockediton #limegreenfamily nonsense that surrounds it, is always to be savoured. It was always more sweet to go to Dave Parade and to win a knockout game so let’s hope that Saturday will bring back the more positive memories to overcome the pantomime set up surrounding the game.

At the core of this game is the fact that Cardiff should be good enough to win, even without key players like Cory Allen, Rhys Patchell and Adam Thomas. Well, two of those three anyway. What stands in their way is not so much the ability of the home team (who are always set up to play the underdog style of Cup rugby that helps in one offs, thanks to Lyn Jones’ love of kick and clap rugby) but the standard of coaching heaped upon this group all season.

The key part of the NGD game plan will be to win penalties from the driving line out. Cardiff have a real achilles heel in this area and the ease in which it was exposed by the NGD at BTSportCAP over Christmas will not be lost even on Lyn Jones. The driving line out will win penalties that Prydie can kick and it will also encourage the kick to the corner to go for the try. If Cardiff can hold out the driving line out in the first 30 minutes in order to stop that part of the home team’s gameplan then they will be some way to winning the game.

The next problem for Cardiff is the average number of points conceded per game. Since McIntosh was appointed as Defence Coach he has managed to produce a record equally as bad as his predecessor (who was sacked) and he appears to be less “The Chief” and more the leader of the Israelites out of Egypt in that he has coached his players to part like the Red Sea. This allows the NGD two key attack points to try out – the driving line out and the cunning plan of keeping the ball long enough and for enough phases until Cardiff’s defensive line predictably crumbles.

In return, Cardiff have little attacking shape. It’s true that they are capable of scoring some stunning tries and can maintain the ball for a large number of phases but all of that seems rather out of keeping, out of the norm, unpredictable. You don’t look at this Cardiff team and see where the tries will come from which means that Saturday is a big test for Gareth Anscombe. He looked to play pretty well at Dave Parade earlier this season but, for this game, he and Lloyd Williams must see the team home. Ideally, Cardiff will play a pick and drive game close to the breakdown in order to develop momentum as none can come from this team in the outside centre channel. Anscombe must send Evans, Smith and Cuthbert off short passes and into the NGD half back area. Key to that, of course, is the support play of Warburton and his fellow back row players.

We’d start with Vosawai at 8 to play the driving game, with Warburton and Jenkins on the flanks as these are the strongest players over the ball. It is in the contact area that this game will be won and the importance of controlling possession will be key. It’s cup rugby, so limited ambition and risk free rugby, which Cardiff can play pretty well. They must evoke the spirit of Wasps in 2010 and the way that Rush led that game if they are to prosper.

It will be tight and it will likely be determined by JP Doyle, the referee. His interpretation of the breakdown area and the front row binding could necessarily bring the penalties that will decide the winning margin.

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